I won the VP elections...in 6th grade.

So here we are...the home stretch before the big conventions. One thing that is of course on everybody's minds is the date by which we know what names will be on the bumper stickers...oh, not the presidential nominees, of course, but the VP picks.

The latest news coming out of the campaigns is that we're close...very close. Barack Obama's people have been closing ranks around him and the vice presidential vetting team in order to ensure that the news doesn't leak before Obama's notification via text message to his loyal supporters. Talk about trying to make the election a spectacle. A text message notification?!

Sources say that Obama has (of course) already made the selection -- that the choice was, in fact, made as he was wrapping up his sun & fun in Hawaii -- but that he hasn't even alerted the potential candidates as to the outcome in order to keep it a surprise. His plan is to announce it this week (possibly as early as Wednesday morning) at which point his VP pick will board a plane and begin actively campaigning with him 24/7 until the convention in Denver next week.

If it was me, I'd need a little bit more notice to be able to make sure that all my outfits matched and that I had enough underwear. But maybe that's just me. But really, what do they do, have their bags all packed just in case? How much of an idiot would you feel like if you had a bag all packed to board the giant "O" plane and then found out via text message you lost? I say lost because this whole thing has turned into more of a contest than a job interview...

But I digress.

I think Obama decided that we're going to be getting the wonderful news sooner rather than later because John McCain just announced that he will be alerting everyone as to his running mate on August 29th at a mall in Ohio (really? I've been to malls in Ohio. Probably a bad choice, he can't afford to contract hepatitis right now). For a while there, though, it was like a game of chicken...everyone was waiting to see who would get the upper hand. If Obama had cracked and just decided to announce in what would have been a genuine surprise attack, McCain would have been able to stomp on his bump by announcing shortly thereafter. And vice versa.

However, it seems like the game just got a little too intense for everyone (haha) and McCain made what I think is a very shrewd and strategic move by choosing to announce so shortly after the DNC and so shortly before the RNC. While VP picks don't matter very much in the outcome of the election, they do help a little in the popularity ratings, and the marginal bumps that each candidate receives could just be enough for McCain to tread on the toes of the DNC, especially if Obama picks someone who doesn't appease everyone...which at this point is pretty much impossible.

And by pretty much, I mean ABSOLUTELY.

The VP picks are typically referred to as the "Do No Harm" picks. You're not really looking for someone to necessarily help you win, but more for someone who won't keep you from winning. Even selecting a VP candidate from a state that you think you need doesn't necessarily mean anything, as John Kerry found out in 2004.

All of this combined means that Barack Obama is in a little bit of a pickle. There's no way in hell he'll pick Hillary (that would be a nightmare), but if he picks another woman Hillary fans everywhere will be more up in arms than they are now! He's got two weak spots - lack of experience in foreign policy,and the need to drive home the message of change and hope. I put this as a weak spot because there are some states that just don't necessarily buy this message yet, and if he has a candidate that would be able to drive that home that might tip the scales in his favor; but there is no candidate that has a great background in foreign policy and a ton of experience that can get anywhere close to promoting the "change" that has become the ever more feeble battle cry of the left.

It's pretty clear that there are three possible choice for Obama: Bayh, a senator from Indiana; Biden, a senator from Delaware, and Kaine, the governor of Virginia. Biden has the experience and Bayh is charismatic, so we have a draw. Kaine is a relative newcomer to the national political scene, and as such can really mold his image to fit whatever is necessary on the change and hope front, but he doesn't have a lot of experience himself, which could just compound that problem for Obama. The other factor that could tip the scales in Kaine's favor, however, is his ties to Virginia, a state needed desperately by both camps to secure the presidency in the electoral count.

As for McCain, there are definitely a few names that are being mentioned more than once. Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, is one, and Mitt Romney is another. Tom Ridge, the former Secretary of Homeland Security and Governor of Pennsylvania, is often discussed as well. Joe Leiberman, a close friend of McCain's, seems to keep getting thrown in there, though for what reason I'm not sure. I know how hard it can be to leave one of your friends out of the mix, but my God, promise to make him the next Secretary of Homeland Security and get him away from you (in a political sense). The last thing that McCain needs is to reach across party lines on this issue! Most conservatives (in the true sense of the word, not just in the party affiliation) are already having huge problems seeing themselves voting for someone as moderate as McCain, so we REALLY don't need a pro-choice Democrat in the VP seat.

I LOVE Mitt Romney. You know how Scarlett has a crush on Barack? I have a crush on Mitt. I think that he could really do great things in the White House, and I think we need a conservative like him there. But how likely is it that McCain will pick him? I'm not sure. They pretty much split the party when they ran against each other, and things seemed pretty acrimonious at times, although now they seem to have kissed and made up. I hope that it is Mitt Romney on that bumper sticker with McCain. But in all honesty, I'm predicting Pawlenty.

I win $20 off of this guy I know if Romney is the choice though, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Along the same lines, the same guy bet me that if Obama won I had to drink a beer for each electoral vote he won by, and if McCain came within ten votes or won outright I get "anything [my] little heart desires."

This could get really interesting really quickly.

xoxo